Jim, I have to disagree with your generalization as well. By your logic
a 1960s cake would sell for $50 or less. That is simply not accurate. I
have seen 1960s Guang Yun Gong cakes sell for $800 and I have seen
1960s Red Label sell for $3,000 both of which were at legitimate
auctions in China frequented by professional collectors, and these are
NOT the extremes by any account. If someone offers you a 1960s cake for
$50 you better look elsewhere!

In my limited experience the market value of puerh is based on several
factors:

1) The factories reputation
2) The production recipe used
3) How well the cake was stored
4) The quality of production that year
5) The quantity of the crop in the given year
6) The reputation for that particular vintage/recipe.
7) Other factors such as limited edition batches etc
8) What the market will bear......


I would say that a high quality cake, that has proven to mature well,
from a well known factory, in an average production year, will increase
anywhere from 10% - 25% *per year* in the current market. Much of this
value is due to the surging popularity of puerh in Hong Kong and Taiwan
over the last 20 years, as well as the fact that well aged pu-erh has
become a status symbol for the rapidly emerging Chinese middle Class.

Mike
http://www.pu-erh.net


Space Cowboy wrote:
> TaoBao sells mid nineties Menghai for $30. In general you add a buck a
> year to the original price for each year of aging. The really
> expensive pu on TaoBao is from limited production and not aging. If
> you pay more than penny/gram for pu'rh then caveat emptor. Then is
> still plenty of Xiaguan Millennium 100g green tuocha in Chinatown for a
> buck.
>
> Jim
>
> Mike Petro wrote:
> > Renny wrote:
> > >If you buy one of my pots I send you a cake of good quality
> > > "green" Menghai Puer that is suitable for investment. That means that
> > > if properly stored it will be worth 200-400 dollars (at current
> > > American market prices) in 2-4 years. If you can keep from drinking it
> > > that long. It will be pretty good tea in a year or two.
> >
> > Renny, now it is you who is spreading misinformation. There is now way
> > that a 2-4 year old green cake of authentic Menghai, yes I know there
> > are many fakes, would sell for $200-$400 here. There *may* be a few
> > vendors dishonest enough to try to do that but they are clearly ripping
> > people off. I do not know where you are getting your "American Market
> > Prices" from but you are being misled if this is what you believe.
> >
> > Your information on teapots is much more believable and in line with
> > what I have learned from other sources. What is your website address
> > please?
> >
> > Sincerely,
> > Mike Petro