Doug Freyburger > wrote:

>Steve Pope wrote:

>> What I frequently see is commentators sliding between "95% of
>> weight-loss attempts fail" and "95% of persons attempting weight-loss
>> fail" but obviously these are two very different statistics.
>> If the first number is correct, the second number is very incorrect.

>Right. Either 5% of dieters eventually succeed or 5% of diets
>eventually succeed. I think it's dieters but I do not have the data to
>know that for sure. Lacking the data my guess in one direction is no
>better than your guess in the other direction.

It shouldn't be necessary to guess; it should at least be possible
to extrapolate a number after studying the research. An extrapolation
is better than a guess.

One meta-study (I could probably find it if necessary) concluded
20% of attempters sustain a 10% weight loss for one year. That's believable
but it's not really the statistic I'm looking for as one year is
too short, whereas the 10% of weight criterion excludes a lot of people
who have definitely achieved some sustained loss.

>> Another thing I see from commentators is discounting successful
>> weight loss attempts unless the magnitude of weight lost
>> exceeds some value (which is often not stated).
>> So a statement such as "95% of persons who attempt sustained weight
>> loss of at least 40 pounds fail" could be true, while at the same
>> time the statement "95% of persons who attempt sustained weight loss
>> of at least 10 pounds fail" could be false.
>
>The case of 10 pounds does matter. Loss is some combination of water
>(icludes glycogen carbs stored by dissolving it in water), fat, lean,
>bone and so on. Of course the loss that nearly everyone wants is fat.
>The problem is water loss is easy to acheive, nearly impossible to
>retain and is as much as 10 pounds in some people. When I managed to
>estimate my water retention swing during maintenance it appeared to be 6
>pounds that randomly comes and goes without any sign of fat lost or
>gained.

I have observed 3 lb immediate weigh gain if I eat overly-salty food.
The weight goes away the next day. So 6 lbs water gain/loss is
easy to believe.

>The chosen threshold for sustained loss must be large enough
>that it can not be water.

Yes, or control for it by some other means (possibly by controlling
sodium intake for a day or two before measuring weight).

Steve