> What we just saw these last few years was a bubble created by a sudden
> increase of demand from an ever increasing, newly created, middle
> class Chinese market. It was a fad and symbol of new found wealth. As
> production increased to meet the demand, the value, and the quality,
> of current production plummeted. Many inexperienced people got into
> the market at all levels, many producers put virtually anything into a
> cake and called it puerh, many inferior teas were brought onto the
> market, and many speculators and consumers made poor buying decisions.
> It will probably take another year or two before the market fully
> stabilizes, the focus will return to quality and the inferior
> producers will be eliminated.

You couldn't be more spot on. Having lived in China for nearly 5
years now, and seeing this insane fad first hand, I can say without a
doubt that the market will need years to stabilize. Unfortunately,
once something creeps into the collective Chinese psyche, like all
Maotai alcohol should be very expensive because it's ALL very good and
we pay more for good things, it's hard to "get back to the way things
were". The market here is indeed subject to supply and demand as any
market, but the average consumer here is extremely uneducated and
inexperience when it comes to buying tea. I know locals of the town I
live that bought tons of basically worthless stock, think Menghai Da
Yi 06-08, simply because they are trying to keep up with the Zhou-es
or they needed something to bribe a local official with. Basically,
the Chinese themselves have destroyed the market value for the tea.
This happens with nearly anything that becomes popular or famous in
China.

I truly hope it's only 2-3 years to stabilize...but I just don't see
it. Interest has begun to wane a little with Pu'er but the shops
still have it in the forefront.