This year looks to be one of the best growing seasons in years, with a
normal sized crop of probable exceptional quality.

Sounds good, until you realize that about 15% to 25% or or more is
never going to be picked, and will be allowed to rot. The bankruptcies
of vineyards is going to be one of the untold stories of 2009.

The economy of high end wines has been hammered. Grapes which used to
sell for $3500 a ton are lucky to find buyers for $1200 a ton, or
less. And even then, their grape deals to sell sell 40-60 tons have
been pared back to maybe 10 tons if they are lucky, and the rest of
the fruit rots on the vine.

There are some actually some small to medium sized wineries which have
cancelled all their grape contracts and will make NO wine this year,
because of unsold inventories. Even large wineries which used to buy
1,000 oak barrels a year are buying zero.

This can't be called the worse year since 1934, because Repeal after
Prohibition at the bottom of the Depression at least brought some
stimulus.

Not so this year, the worst year in history. Expect about 500
wineries of all sizes to close their doors by this time next year.
Those which survive, owned by chain winery groups, will be behind
seven months in paying growers and suppliers, and lawsuits will be
useless, because you can't sue people in bankruptcy or who don't exist
anymore.

I had four conversations with winemakers today, and there was nothing
good. These guys are all wondering if they will lose their jobs in a
few weeks.

And we know this is only the beginning. Early next year it's all going
to crash, BIG TIME You ain't seen nothing yet.

So this is my harvest report. I will have updates about wine quality
of unsold grapes which will rot in the vineyard, and winery
foreclosures and bankruptcy filings each week as we go on.

Thanks

--Bob Robertson

Bobchai wrote:

> Not so this year, the worst year in history. Expect about 500
> wineries of all sizes to close their doors by this time next year.
> Those which survive, owned by chain winery groups, will be behind
> seven months in paying growers and suppliers, and lawsuits will be
> useless, because you can't sue people in bankruptcy or who don't exist
> anymore.
>
> I had four conversations with winemakers today, and there was nothing
> good. These guys are all wondering if they will lose their jobs in a
> few weeks.
>
> And we know this is only the beginning. Early next year it's all going
> to crash, BIG TIME You ain't seen nothing yet.

Wow, Bob! That is one depressing prognosis. For your sake and the sake
of the whole industry, I hope that things turn out better than
anticipated. It sounds like barrel sales are way down, too? BTW, it's
great having you back with the perspective you bring to this group. I
was just thinking about you not long ago when I read a tasting note for
a '78 Sterling Merlot, when I couldn't help wondering if you had a hand
in making it. The person who posted the note loved the wine, FWIW.

Cheers!
Mark Lipton


--
alt.food.wine FAQ: http://winefaq.cwdjr.net

In article
>,
Bobchai > wrote:

> This year looks to be one of the best growing seasons in years, with a
> normal sized crop of probable exceptional quality.
>
> Sounds good, until you realize that about 15% to 25% or or more is
> never going to be picked, and will be allowed to rot. The bankruptcies
> of vineyards is going to be one of the untold stories of 2009.
>
> The economy of high end wines has been hammered. Grapes which used to
> sell for $3500 a ton are lucky to find buyers for $1200 a ton, or
> less. And even then, their grape deals to sell sell 40-60 tons have
> been pared back to maybe 10 tons if they are lucky, and the rest of
> the fruit rots on the vine.
>
> There are some actually some small to medium sized wineries which have
> cancelled all their grape contracts and will make NO wine this year,
> because of unsold inventories. Even large wineries which used to buy
> 1,000 oak barrels a year are buying zero.
>
> This can't be called the worse year since 1934, because Repeal after
> Prohibition at the bottom of the Depression at least brought some
> stimulus.
>
> Not so this year, the worst year in history. Expect about 500
> wineries of all sizes to close their doors by this time next year.
> Those which survive, owned by chain winery groups, will be behind
> seven months in paying growers and suppliers, and lawsuits will be
> useless, because you can't sue people in bankruptcy or who don't exist
> anymore.
>
> I had four conversations with winemakers today, and there was nothing
> good. These guys are all wondering if they will lose their jobs in a
> few weeks.
>
> And we know this is only the beginning. Early next year it's all going
> to crash, BIG TIME You ain't seen nothing yet.
>
> So this is my harvest report. I will have updates about wine quality
> of unsold grapes which will rot in the vineyard, and winery
> foreclosures and bankruptcy filings each week as we go on.
>
> Thanks
>
> --Bob Robertson

Not good news at all.

On 2009-09-16 02:18:40 -0700, Bobchai > said:

> This year looks to be one of the best growing seasons in years, with a
> normal sized crop of probable exceptional quality.

> Expect about 500
> wineries of all sizes to close their doors by this time next year.
>

Sad, but not unexpected... I drive through hiway 12 several time a
year and have been flabbergasted at the - what I call - overplanting.
empty dry hills formerly beef pasture planted to grapes, and a
monoculture that just asks for something like the glassy-winged
sharpshooter to come feast... I know several people who have had their
5 acre ranchettes planted to wine grapes and were financing their
annual trips to Europe on the sales, but that all stopped about 4 or
five years ago. That and so many new wineries with no track record
trying to sell their first releases at $50, $100, $150/bottle. I am
hoping with the drop in grape prices some of the wineries will drop
their prices so we poor consumers can get some premium wines at what I
would consider fairer prices. I don't hold out much hope, though for
American producers - they seem to think they have to keep that hich
price cachet and would rather go bankrupt rather than drop their
prices. I also expect to see a lot of second lables pop up, and maybe
we can get some really good two buck chuck!

Jim

Ronin wrote:
> On 2009-09-16 02:18:40 -0700, Bobchai > said:
>
>> This year looks to be one of the best growing seasons in years, with a
>> normal sized crop of probable exceptional quality.
>
>> Expect about 500
>> wineries of all sizes to close their doors by this time next year.
>>
>
> Sad, but not unexpected... I drive through hiway 12 several time a year
> and have been flabbergasted at the - what I call - overplanting. empty
> dry hills formerly beef pasture planted to grapes, and a monoculture
> that just asks for something like the glassy-winged sharpshooter to come
> feast... I know several people who have had their 5 acre ranchettes
> planted to wine grapes and were financing their annual trips to Europe
> on the sales, but that all stopped about 4 or five years ago. That and
> so many new wineries with no track record trying to sell their first
> releases at $50, $100, $150/bottle. I am hoping with the drop in grape
> prices some of the wineries will drop their prices so we poor consumers
> can get some premium wines at what I would consider fairer prices. I
> don't hold out much hope, though for American producers - they seem to
> think they have to keep that hich price cachet and would rather go
> bankrupt rather than drop their prices. I also expect to see a lot of
> second lables pop up, and maybe we can get some really good two buck chuck!

Yeah, you can bet that Fred Franzia is laughing his ass off right about
now. As always, though, with 2BC you'll have to watch out for variation
between lots. Would that TTB required lot numbers on wines.

Mark Lipton

Mark Lipton

--
alt.food.wine FAQ: http://winefaq.cwdjr.net

In article >,
Ronin > wrote:

> On 2009-09-16 02:18:40 -0700, Bobchai > said:
>
> > This year looks to be one of the best growing seasons in years, with a
> > normal sized crop of probable exceptional quality.
>
> > Expect about 500
> > wineries of all sizes to close their doors by this time next year.
> >
>
> Sad, but not unexpected... I drive through hiway 12 several time a
> year and have been flabbergasted at the - what I call - overplanting.
> empty dry hills formerly beef pasture planted to grapes, and a
> monoculture that just asks for something like the glassy-winged
> sharpshooter to come feast... I know several people who have had their
> 5 acre ranchettes planted to wine grapes and were financing their
> annual trips to Europe on the sales, but that all stopped about 4 or
> five years ago. That and so many new wineries with no track record
> trying to sell their first releases at $50, $100, $150/bottle. I am
> hoping with the drop in grape prices some of the wineries will drop
> their prices so we poor consumers can get some premium wines at what I
> would consider fairer prices. I don't hold out much hope, though for
> American producers - they seem to think they have to keep that hich
> price cachet and would rather go bankrupt rather than drop their
> prices. I also expect to see a lot of second lables pop up, and maybe
> we can get some really good two buck chuck!
>
> Jim

Yes, there are large grape arbors in almost every front yard in Napa and
Sonoma. Someone expects to sell all of that juice but to whom?