The Evidence Mounts are MIT and NOA radical left wing organizations.
Like the Republican Governor of Alaska.

Global Change is very obvious to all but those in the oil business that
will make a quick buck and sacrifice our futures.



Climate change may be fueling storms
Global warming is a probable cause of a dramatic upswing in the power
of hurricanes, according to a new study.
BY MARTIN MERZER

Mon, Aug. 01, 2005



The accumulated power of Atlantic hurricanes has more than doubled in
the past 30 years, with a particularly dramatic spike since 1995, and
global warming likely is a major cause, according to a study to be
published this week.

Though a connection between global warming and hurricane ferocity
might seem logical, the report by a reputable climatologist at the
Massachusetts Institute of Technology is the first to draw a
statistical relationship between the two.

''The large upswing in the last decade is unprecedented and probably
reflects the effect of global warming,'' scientist Kerry Emanuel
wrote in a study that will appear in the Thursday edition of the
journal Nature. Copies of the article were made available Sunday.

Importantly, his study did not shed any light on the effect, if any,
of global warming on the number of storms.

But that is only of modest consolation.

One reason: Scientists at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric
Administration's hurricane research division on Virginia Key have
concluded that, due to long-term natural cycles, we are in the middle
of a decades-long period of more frequent hurricane formation.

The current season, with a record seven named storms by July 23,
provides unpleasant support for that conclusion.

Another source of concern: Most experts expect global warning to
persist.

DESTRUCTIVE POWER

So, if both camps of scientists are correct, we could be facing
stronger storms and more of them -- a potentially catastrophic
collision of phenomena.

''My results suggest that future warming may lead to an upward trend
in tropical cyclone destructive potential and -- taking into account
an increasing coastal population -- a substantial increase in
hurricane-related losses in the 21st century,'' Emanuel wrote.

He said his analysis of wind-speed reports by the National Hurricane
Center and other sources show that the accumulated power of
hurricanes in the Atlantic basin, which includes the Caribbean Sea
and the Gulf of Mexico, has more than doubled since 1970.

A particularly steep increase began in 1995, according to the study.

''This large increase in power dissipation over the past 30 years or
so may be because storms have become more intense, on the average,
and/or have survived at high intensity for longer periods of time,''
he wrote.

Emanuel said the trend is closely linked to an increase of about one
degree in the average ocean surface temperature, which might not seem
significant but can be crucial.

''It sounds like a small amount, but we know that as waters get even
a little bit warmer, the potential exists for hurricanes to get
dramatically stronger,'' said Chris Landsea, an NOAA scientist on
Virginia Key and one of the nation's leading hurricane researchers.

NOT CONVINCED

Still, he is not fully convinced by Emanuel's study.

Landsea said the 1995-04 spike in accumulated hurricane power
correlated precisely with the beginning of the period of increased
hurricane formation.

''It's very difficult to separate out what's caused by this natural
cycle of activity versus man-made warming,'' Landsea said.

He also raised concerns about some statistical procedures employed by
Emanuel, whom he described as ``a very respected researcher.''

''This is a serious study and it needs to be taken seriously,''
Landsea said. ``But when you take a close look at it, there's a lot
of caveats. So, at this point, I'm not convinced he's found the
smoking gun between global warming and hurricanes.''

In October 2004, Tom Knutson, a hurricane researcher at the
government's Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory in Princeton,
N.J., told The Herald he had noticed persistently high water
temperatures in the main hurricane production zone of the Atlantic.

''The latest 10-year average is warmer than anything else in the
record'' dating to 1870, he said. ``More research is needed to try to
figure out how much of this is attributed to natural fluctuations and
whether any of it is related to a broad-scale, global warming
factor.''

Knutson, who did not participate in Emanuel's study, coauthored a
report that was published in September 2004 and sparked new interest
in the topic.

FUTURE OUTLOOK

It found that by the 2080s, global warming could cause the typical
hurricane to produce 6 percent stronger winds and 18 percent more
rain.

In some cases, those winds could raise the average storm a half-step
on the five-category Saffir-Simpson scale of hurricane intensity.

''There's some uncertainty, but we're saying that environmental
conditions will support stronger hurricanes,'' Knutson told The Herald.

Fidyl
Live Simply So That
Others May Simply Live
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/Yoga-With-Nancy-SoFla/
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/SignSoFla/
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/SoFlaVegans/
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/SoFlaSchools/



__________________________________________________ __
Start your day with Yahoo! - make it your home page
http://www.yahoo.com/r/hs



* * * * * * * * * *

To post a message, send an email to:



To unsubscribe:








Beach Runner wrote:

> For more evice from MIRT and NOA (the governmenal organization) hardly
> radical organizations
> http://aolsvc.news.aol.com/business/...01054309990002
>
> Global Warming Making Hurricanes Stronger
> By JOSEPH B.VERRENGIA, AP
>
> Is global warming making hurricanes more ferocious?
> New research suggests the answer is yes. Scientists
> call the findings both surprising and "alarming"
> because they suggest global warming is influencing
> storms now - rather than in the distant future.
>
> However, the research doesn't suggest global warming
> is generating more hurricanes and typhoons.
>
> The analysis by climatologist Kerry Emanuel of the
> Massachusetts Institute of Technology shows for the
> first time that major storms spinning in both the
> Atlantic and the Pacific since the 1970s have
> increased in duration and intensity by about 50
> percent.
>
> These trends are closely linked to increases in the
> average temperatures of the ocean surface and also
> correspond to increases in global average atmospheric
> temperatures during the same period.
>
> "When I look at these results at face value, they are
> rather alarming," said research meteorologist Tom
> Knutson. "These are very big changes."
>
> Knutson, who wasn't involved in the study, works in
> the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's
> Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory in Princeton,
> N.J.
>
> Emanuel reached his conclusions by analyzing data
> collected from actual storms rather than using
> computer models to predict future storm behavior.
>
> Before this study, most researchers believed global
> warming's contribution to powerful hurricanes was too
> slight to accurately measure. Most forecasts don't
> have climate change making a real difference in
> tropical storms until 2050 or later.
>
> But some scientists questioned Emanuel's methods. For
> example, the MIT researcher did not consider wind
> speed information from some powerful storms in the
> 1950s and 1960s because the details of those storms
> are inconsistent.
>
> Researchers are using new methods to analyze those
> storms and others going back as far as 1851. If early
> storms turn out to be more powerful than originally
> thought, Emmanuel's findings on global warming's
> influence on recent tropical storms might not hold up,
> they said.
>
> "I'm not convinced that it's happening," said
> Christopher W. Landsea, another research meteorologist
> with NOAA, who works at a different lab, the Atlantic
> Oceanographic & Meteorological Laboratory in Miami.
> Landsea is a director of the historical hurricane
> reanalysis.
>
> "His conclusions are contingent on a very large bias
> removal that is large or larger than the global
> warming signal itself," Landsea said.
>
> Details of Emanuel's study appear Sunday in the online
> version of the journal Nature.
>
> Theories and computer simulations indicate that global
> warming should generate an increase in storm
> intensity, in part because warmer temperatures would
> heat up the surface of the oceans. Especially in the
> Atlantic and Caribbean basins, pools of warming
> seawater provide energy for storms as they swirl and
> grow over the open oceans.
>
> Emanuel analyzed records of storm measurements made by
> aircraft and satellites since the 1950s. He found the
> amount of energy released in these storms in both the
> North Atlantic and the North Pacific oceans has
> increased, especially since the mid-1970s.
>
> In the Atlantic, the sea surface temperatures show a
> pronounced upward trend. The same is true in the North
> Pacific, though the data there is more variable, he
> said.
>
> "This is the first time I have been convinced we are
> seeing a signal in the actual hurricane data," Emanuel
> said in an e-mail exchange.
>
> "The total energy dissipated by hurricanes turns out
> to be well correlated with tropical sea surface
> temperatures," he said. "The large upswing in the past
> decade is unprecedented and probably reflects the
> effects of global warming."
>
> This year marked the first time on record that the
> Atlantic spawned four named storms by early July, as
> well as the earliest category 4 storm on record.
> Hurricanes are ranked on an intensity scale of 1 to 5.
>
> In the past decade, the southeastern United States and
> the Caribbean basin have been pummeled by the most
> active hurricane cycle on record. Forecasters expect
> the stormy trend to continue for another 20 years or
> more.
>
> Even without global warming, hurricane cycles tend to
> be a consequence of natural salinity and temperature
> changes in the Atlantic's deep current circulation
> that shift back and forth every 40 to 60 years.
>
> Since the 1970s, hurricanes have caused more property
> damage and casualties. Researchers disagree over
> whether this destructiveness is a consequence of the
> storms' growing intensity or the population boom along
> vulnerable coastlines.
>
> "The damage and casualties produced by more intense
> storms could increase considerably in the future,"
> Emanuel said.
>
> NOAA's Atlantic Oceanographic & Meteorological
> Laboratory: http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/
>
>
> Beach Runner wrote:
>
>>
>>
>> usual suspect wrote:
>>
>>> Beach Runner wrote:
>>>
>>>> http://www.commondreams....
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>> From their "about us" page:
>>>
>>> Common Dreams is a national non-profit citizens' organization
>>> working to bring *progressive* Americans together to promote
>>> *progressive* visions for America's future. Founded in 1997, we
>>> are committed to being on the cutting-edge of using the internet
>>> as a political organizing tool - and creating new models for
>>> internet *activism*.
>>>
>>> IOW, they admit they're *liberal* activists.
>>>
>>> <...>
>>
>>
>> What is correct? IF the many models that say global warming are
>> correct, and there is no doubt there are many models, than radical
>> chance is necessary.
>>
>> If things were business as usual, it wouldn't matter, but of course, they
>> are not business as usual except to the really blind conservative
>> people as yourself. We are in the midst of a global change and you
>> can't even see it.
>>
>> So you can correct some spelling or typos when I take medication for
>> back pain from a 90 mph car accident (Yes, I was hit on a residential
>> street) and make some minor mistake then. It doesn't change the
>> substance.
>>
>
>
>
>> You've still ignored the vast majority of my quotes from major
>> scientific organization or the Republican governor of Alaska who sees
>> the effects of global warming while you bury your head in the sand.