TaoBao is a market place where you can check prices in the current
Chinese economy. I've been doing that since I found it. All I'm
saying you can find plenty of 10 year pu for $30. Most 2004 300g beeng
I've seen is just $10. You can find prices more expensive than you
quote but nothing more than limited availability. If I'm in China and
show the appreciation you mention then I'm done sitting in front of the
penny stock exhange investing in my retirement because the government
won't take care of me anymore. I think to pretend that there is any
real market for aged pu is misinformation. The high pricing is based
on limited collectors and not demand. I haven't seen any of the big
ticket items on TaoBao sell. You know pu produced before the modern
production process in the early seventies is the demand and not the
age. I've come across Chinese webpages translated by Google and it
seems the accounts of prices at auction are inflated ie it's like
Christie's the minimum bid isn't met. I do my own collecting of
several genre and the real collector doesn't pay the asking price and
doesn't resell. In other words there is little profit in collecting.
I expect to get my money back with a small profit but the possession is
more important than the profit. From what I've seen Pu investment is
the Chinese version of the Beanie Baby. I think the new wealth of
China is investing in nostalgia with something different tomorrow.
Jim
Mike Petro wrote:
> Jim, I have to disagree with your generalization as well. By your logic
> a 1960s cake would sell for $50 or less. That is simply not accurate. I
> have seen 1960s Guang Yun Gong cakes sell for $800 and I have seen
> 1960s Red Label sell for $3,000 both of which were at legitimate
> auctions in China frequented by professional collectors, and these are
> NOT the extremes by any account. If someone offers you a 1960s cake for
> $50 you better look elsewhere!
>
> In my limited experience the market value of puerh is based on several
> factors:
>
> 1) The factories reputation
> 2) The production recipe used
> 3) How well the cake was stored
> 4) The quality of production that year
> 5) The quantity of the crop in the given year
> 6) The reputation for that particular vintage/recipe.
> 7) Other factors such as limited edition batches etc
> 8) What the market will bear......
>
>
> I would say that a high quality cake, that has proven to mature well,
> from a well known factory, in an average production year, will increase
> anywhere from 10% - 25% *per year* in the current market. Much of this
> value is due to the surging popularity of puerh in Hong Kong and Taiwan
> over the last 20 years, as well as the fact that well aged pu-erh has
> become a status symbol for the rapidly emerging Chinese middle Class.
>
> Mike
> http://www.pu-erh.net
>
>
> Space Cowboy wrote:
> > TaoBao sells mid nineties Menghai for $30. In general you add a buck a
> > year to the original price for each year of aging. The really
> > expensive pu on TaoBao is from limited production and not aging. If
> > you pay more than penny/gram for pu'rh then caveat emptor. Then is
> > still plenty of Xiaguan Millennium 100g green tuocha in Chinatown for a
> > buck.
> >
> > Jim
> >
> > Mike Petro wrote:
> > > Renny wrote:
> > > >If you buy one of my pots I send you a cake of good quality
> > > > "green" Menghai Puer that is suitable for investment. That means that
> > > > if properly stored it will be worth 200-400 dollars (at current
> > > > American market prices) in 2-4 years. If you can keep from drinking it
> > > > that long. It will be pretty good tea in a year or two.
> > >
> > > Renny, now it is you who is spreading misinformation. There is now way
> > > that a 2-4 year old green cake of authentic Menghai, yes I know there
> > > are many fakes, would sell for $200-$400 here. There *may* be a few
> > > vendors dishonest enough to try to do that but they are clearly ripping
> > > people off. I do not know where you are getting your "American Market
> > > Prices" from but you are being misled if this is what you believe.
> > >
> > > Your information on teapots is much more believable and in line with
> > > what I have learned from other sources. What is your website address
> > > please?
> > >
> > > Sincerely,
> > > Mike Petro