In article ,
(Jaybert41) writes:

For personal and sentimental reasons I am in the market for '02 Mouton, Cos
d'Estournel, Ducru Beauciallou, and Durfort Vivens. I am a little worried
about all of the hype surrounding Mouton and Cos in regards the soon to be
released Parker scores- and their subsequent price increases. I hate to
worry about Parker scores especially, but I wanted to get opinions on whether
or
not Mouton ($109-125), Cos ($60-99) and Ducru ($40-45) might be had at these
prices again. Of course it is all speculative; I'm just looking for a fresh
opinion.

Well, there are two competing trends. In the first, prices on wine in US have
been under economic pressures. I've seen a lot of very good deals. In French
wine, slack post-B2K demand led to lower pricing in the 2001 and especially
2002 vintages. Could this trend accelarate? The second trend is the weak US
dollar. Distributors, importers, etc. have been eating the difference (see
trend #1). But they won't keep that up forever.

In any case, predicting economic trends is really hard, no matter what the
market newsletter guys tell you. Whether it's the US forecasters who said the
stock market would falter in 1998, or that it could only go up in 2000, there's
a lot of guessing in there. In US, RP scores make such a difference, that make
another unpredictable factor. As I said in the Sauternes future thread, if
you're buying futures:
Buy early if you can
Buy only because you KNOW YOU WANT the wine
Be prepared to shrug it off if you're wrong re prices (either way)

The best reason to buy is that you know you want some top wines from that year
(sentimental reasons, or whatever). We were married in 2001, so I bought some
Bdx futures, plus Sauternes. 2002 doesn't hold the same attraction. If I taste
barrel samples and like, might go then.

You also wrote:
"On the same note regarding futures, has anybody any experience with Wine
Discount Center in Chicago? They have a small selection of '02's and the best
prices. Like everyone else I just dont want to have my order dropped between"

Warning, Will Robinson, Danger! (you're too young for that reference). Be very
very careful there. The Rare LLC story is the worst (1000s of people out big
bucks), but only buy futures from retailers with long histories of delivering
futures, sterling reputations, brick & mortar stores. In Midwest, I wouldn't
hesitate ordering from Sam's or Binny's. But I've never heard of Wine Dicount
Center. If Mark or another area person says they are very reputable, great. But
otherwise, look forthe best price from PremierCru (I know the Mouton is $109
there), Sams, Rochambeau, PJs, Sherry-Lehmann, K & L, Wine Exchange,
MacArthur's (though I think even there they had delivery problems in 1990),
etc. It's worth a little a premium for confidence.



Dale

Dale Williams
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